Upset index
Upset index
Matches won by the side the pre-match odds gave little chance, and which leagues and teams produce more upsets than expected. Index 100 = as many upsets as expected.
- Matches with a clear favourite
- 23,654
- Upsets
- 4,500
- Upset rate
- 19.0%
- Upset index
- 98
Biggest upsets this week
Last 7 days, all sports
-
Norwegian Football Cup
Rosenborg BK1
HamKam2
Winner's pre-match chance 6.2% · odds 15.00
-
American football
NCAA Division FBS
UCF Knights9
Baylor Bears41
Winner's pre-match chance 6.8% · odds 14.00
-
Puchar Polski · Round of 32
Siarka Tarnobrzeg1
Lech Poznań0
Winner's pre-match chance 6.9% · odds 13.00
Biggest upsets this season
Current season of each competition, by odds
Filters
Odds data: 554,472 matches with a clear favourite between 31 Dec 2015 and 3 Nov 2026.
Biggest upsets
By the winner's pre-match chance (from odds) — lowest first
-
Women's Euro, Qualification
Czechia2
Spain1
Winner's pre-match chance 1.8% · odds 51.00
-
Women's Euro, Qualification
Bulgaria2
Armenia3
Winner's pre-match chance 2.3% · odds 41.00
-
U19 European Championship Qualif.
Faroe Islands U190
Moldova U192
Winner's pre-match chance 2.8% · odds 34.00
-
UEFA Women's Europa Cup
FK Aktobe1
Ajax0
Winner's pre-match chance 2.8% · odds 34.00
-
UEFA Youth League
Viking FK U192
FC Bayern München U190
Winner's pre-match chance 2.8% · odds 34.00
-
Liga F Moeve
Real Sociedad2
Fútbol Club Barcelona1
Winner's pre-match chance 3.6% · odds 26.00
-
Kyrgyzstan
0–1
Mongolia
-
SSV Jeddeloh II
5–2
1. FC Heidenheim
-
São Tomé and Príncipe
1–0
Malawi
-
Faroe Islands
2–1
Montenegro
-
Malaysia
1–0
Nepal
-
Japan
0–1
Oman
-
Kazakhstan
3–2
Denmark
-
Kosovo
0–1
Latvia
-
Bolívar
1–2
Club Independiente Petrolero
-
Nigeria
2–3
Malawi
-
Tanzania
0–1
Liechtenstein
-
Ireland
3–1
France
-
SV Leithaprodersdorf
2–1
Admira Wacker
-
Mazatlán FC
3–2
FC Juárez
-
Brabrand
2–1
Viborg FF
-
West Bromwich Albion WFC
0–1
Notts County LFC
-
South Africa
1–2
Tanzania
-
Rosenborg BK
1–2
HamKam
-
Independiente Medellín
0–1
Cúcuta Deportivo
-
Finland
0–1
Malta
-
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1–0
Lech Poznań
-
Club Sporting Cristal
1–2
CD Moquegua
-
Querétaro
2–1
FC Juárez
-
Young Boys Frauen
1–3
SeaSters Odesa
-
Alianza Lima
0–1
Deportivo Garcilaso
-
River Plate
0–1
Barracas Central
-
Atlético Bucaramanga
2–3
Boca Juniors
-
Saint Martin
0–2
US Virgin Islands
-
Bodø/Glimt
0–1
Vålerenga IF
-
Cruzeiro
0–1
Democrata (GV)
-
Tartu JK Tammeka
3–1
Flora Tallinn
-
Club León
0–1
Querétaro
-
Germany U21
2–3
Greece U21
-
Cuiabá U20
0–2
América Mineiro U20
Upset index by league
100 = as many upsets as the probabilities predict; above is more chaotic, below more predictable
Giant killers
Win more than expected as the underdog
| Team | Underdog wins | Expected | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
 Macará · LigaPro Serie A |
12/20 | 4.1 | 191 |
 Harju Jalgpallikool · Premium Liiga |
8/19 | 3.3 | 160 |
 Portland Timbers II · MLS Next Pro |
6/7 | 2.0 | 159 |
 Universidad Católica · Liga de Primera |
5/7 | 1.5 | 155 |
 Morocco U20 · U-20 World Championship |
4/5 | 0.9 | 154 |
 Uberlândia EC · Brasileirão Série D |
7/14 | 3.0 | 152 |
 Gimnasia y Esgrima · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
10/24 | 5.1 | 152 |
 Paraguay U20 · U-20 World Championship |
5/8 | 1.7 | 151 |
 AIK · Allsvenskan |
6/11 | 2.4 | 150 |
 OFI Crete · Superbet Greek Cup |
4/9 | 1.2 | 148 |
Upset victims
Lose more than expected as the favourite
| Team | Losses as favourite | Expected | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
 FC Imabari · J2 League |
7/11 | 2.6 | 161 |
 Deportivo Pasto · Primera A |
8/17 | 3.3 | 159 |
 Andorra · LaLiga 2 |
5/7 | 1.4 | 157 |
 Tigre · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
10/24 | 4.9 | 155 |
 Kashiwa Reysol · J1 League |
12/30 | 6.5 | 152 |
 SK Brann · Norwegian Football Cup |
8/23 | 4.1 | 146 |
 SV Waldhof Mannheim · 3. Liga |
4/5 | 1.3 | 144 |
 Jeonnam Dragons · K League 2 |
5/8 | 2.1 | 144 |
 San Jose Earthquakes II · MLS Next Pro |
8/17 | 4.3 | 143 |
 Nantes · Ligue 2 |
5/9 | 2.1 | 143 |
How is it calculated?
- Probability: From pre-match 1X2 (or two-way) odds, with the bookmaker margin removed proportionally: p = (1/odds) / Σ(1/odds). The same formula as the stats hub's “upsets by odds” block.
- Clear favourite and upset: Only matches with at least a 10-point gap between the home and away win probabilities count; if the favourite's opponent wins, it is an upset. Draws are not upsets. Winner's chance of 25% or less = big upset.
- Ranking: The lower the winner's pre-match chance, the bigger the upset (surprise score = 100 × (1 − chance)).
- Index: 100 × (actual upsets + 5) / (expected upsets + 5); expected = sum of the underdogs' win probabilities. The +5 pulls small samples towards 100. Teams have two directions: giant killing (winning as the underdog) and fragility (losing as the favourite).
- Calibration: Expected values are scaled by the source's overall hit factor (0.95 in this view), so a systematic bias of the source does not shift every league the same way.
- Historical (model): For past matches without odds, the probability comes from our learning Elo model replaying the full history chronologically and taking its state before the match (both teams need at least 15 matches; friendlies excluded). Never mixed with odds.