Upset index
Türkiye Kupası upset index
Matches won by the side the pre-match odds gave little chance, and which leagues and teams produce more upsets than expected. Index 100 = as many upsets as expected.
- Matches with a clear favourite
- 46
- Upsets
- 14
- Upset rate
- 30.4%
- Upset index
- 151
Filters
Odds data: 556,051 matches with a clear favourite between 31 Dec 2015 and 8 Nov 2026.
Biggest upsets
By the winner's pre-match chance (from odds) — lowest first
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Türkiye Kupası
Menemen FK0
Karacabey Belediye Spor1
Winner's pre-match chance 11% · odds 8.00
-
Türkiye Kupası
Pazarspor3
Erbaaspor1
Winner's pre-match chance 18% · odds 5.00
-
Türkiye Kupası
Eskişehir Anadolu Spor Faaliyetleri4
Antalya Kepezspor2
Winner's pre-match chance 18% · odds 5.00
-
Türkiye Kupası
Zonguldakspor FK0
Düzcespor1
Winner's pre-match chance 20% · odds 4.50
-
Türkiye Kupası
Sakaryaspor2
Bursa Yıldırımspor3
Winner's pre-match chance 22% · odds 4.10
-
Türkiye Kupası
Osmaniyespor FK0
Yeni Mersin İdman Yurdu AŞ3
Winner's pre-match chance 22% · odds 4.00
-
Elazığspor
0–2
Erciyes 38 FSK
-
Güzide Gebzespor
0–4
Malatya Yeşilyurt Belediyespor
-
Adana Adaletgücü
1–2
MKE Ankaragücü
-
Kırıkkale FK
0–3
Kırşehir FK
-
Silivrispor
3–2
Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı FAŞ
-
Eskişehirspor
1–0
Iğdır FK
-
Karaman FK
2–3
Antalya Kepezspor
-
Eskişehir Anadolu Spor Faaliyetleri
3–1
68 Aksarayspor
Türkiye Kupası: by season
The most chaotic and most predictable seasons
How is it calculated?
- Probability: From pre-match 1X2 (or two-way) odds, with the bookmaker margin removed proportionally: p = (1/odds) / Σ(1/odds). The same formula as the stats hub's “upsets by odds” block.
- Clear favourite and upset: Only matches with at least a 10-point gap between the home and away win probabilities count; if the favourite's opponent wins, it is an upset. Draws are not upsets. Winner's chance of 25% or less = big upset.
- Ranking: The lower the winner's pre-match chance, the bigger the upset (surprise score = 100 × (1 − chance)).
- Index: 100 × (actual upsets + 5) / (expected upsets + 5); expected = sum of the underdogs' win probabilities. The +5 pulls small samples towards 100. Teams have two directions: giant killing (winning as the underdog) and fragility (losing as the favourite).
- Calibration: Expected values are scaled by the source's overall hit factor (0.95 in this view), so a systematic bias of the source does not shift every league the same way.
- Historical (model): For past matches without odds, the probability comes from our learning Elo model replaying the full history chronologically and taking its state before the match (both teams need at least 15 matches; friendlies excluded). Never mixed with odds.