Upset index
Carioca upset index
Matches won by the side the pre-match odds gave little chance, and which leagues and teams produce more upsets than expected. Index 100 = as many upsets as expected.
- Matches with a clear favourite
- 45
- Upsets
- 12
- Upset rate
- 26.7%
- Upset index
- 126
Filters
Odds data: 556,030 matches with a clear favourite between 31 Dec 2015 and 8 Nov 2026.
Biggest upsets
By the winner's pre-match chance (from odds) — lowest first
-
Carioca
Boavista1
Fluminense0
Winner's pre-match chance 16% · odds 5.75
-
Carioca
Nova Iguaçu0
Maricá FC1
Winner's pre-match chance 19% · odds 4.75
-
Carioca
Flamengo1
Vasco da Gama0
Winner's pre-match chance 23% · odds 4.00
-
Carioca
Maricá FC1
Bangu2
Winner's pre-match chance 23% · odds 4.00
-
Carioca
Bangu2
Flamengo1
Winner's pre-match chance 24% · odds 3.70
-
Carioca
Fluminense2
Flamengo1
Winner's pre-match chance 25% · odds 3.70
Carioca: by season
The most chaotic and most predictable seasons
Giant killers
Win more than expected as the underdog
| Team | Underdog wins | Expected | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangu |
4/8 | 1.4 | 142 |
 Sampaio Corrêa-RJ |
3/7 | 1.5 | 124 |
| Maricá FC |
2/5 | 1.0 | 117 |
| Flamengo |
1/1 | 0.2 | 115 |
| Fluminense |
1/2 | 0.5 | 110 |
| Boavista |
1/5 | 1.0 | 101 |
Upset victims
Lose more than expected as the favourite
| Team | Losses as favourite | Expected | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maricá FC |
3/3 | 0.8 | 139 |
| Nova Iguaçu |
2/4 | 0.9 | 120 |
| Flamengo |
2/8 | 1.3 | 112 |
 Botafogo |
1/5 | 0.8 | 104 |
 Volta Redonda |
1/4 | 0.8 | 104 |
| Fluminense |
1/6 | 0.9 | 102 |
 Portuguesa-RJ |
1/4 | 1.1 | 100 |
| Vasco da Gama |
1/7 | 1.4 | 95 |
How is it calculated?
- Probability: From pre-match 1X2 (or two-way) odds, with the bookmaker margin removed proportionally: p = (1/odds) / Σ(1/odds). The same formula as the stats hub's “upsets by odds” block.
- Clear favourite and upset: Only matches with at least a 10-point gap between the home and away win probabilities count; if the favourite's opponent wins, it is an upset. Draws are not upsets. Winner's chance of 25% or less = big upset.
- Ranking: The lower the winner's pre-match chance, the bigger the upset (surprise score = 100 × (1 − chance)).
- Index: 100 × (actual upsets + 5) / (expected upsets + 5); expected = sum of the underdogs' win probabilities. The +5 pulls small samples towards 100. Teams have two directions: giant killing (winning as the underdog) and fragility (losing as the favourite).
- Calibration: Expected values are scaled by the source's overall hit factor (0.95 in this view), so a systematic bias of the source does not shift every league the same way.
- Historical (model): For past matches without odds, the probability comes from our learning Elo model replaying the full history chronologically and taking its state before the match (both teams need at least 15 matches; friendlies excluded). Never mixed with odds.