Upset index
Cupa României Betano upset index
Matches won by the side the pre-match odds gave little chance, and which leagues and teams produce more upsets than expected. Index 100 = as many upsets as expected.
- Matches with a clear favourite
- 62
- Upsets
- 11
- Upset rate
- 17.7%
- Upset index
- 90
Filters
Odds data: 555,362 matches with a clear favourite between 31 Dec 2015 and 7 Nov 2026.
Biggest upsets
By the winner's pre-match chance (from odds) — lowest first
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Cupa României Betano
CS Gloria Bistrița1
FCSB0
Winner's pre-match chance 13% · odds 7.00
-
Cupa României Betano
AFC Progresul 1944 Spartac2
FC Metaloglobus București1
Winner's pre-match chance 18% · odds 5.00
-
Cupa României Betano
CS USV-CSM Iași1
ACSM Cetatea 1932 Suceava0
Winner's pre-match chance 18% · odds 5.00
-
Cupa României Betano
SCM Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu2
CSM Cetatea Turnu Măgurele1
Winner's pre-match chance 18% · odds 5.00
-
Cupa României Betano
CS Universitar Alba Iulia3
CS CIL Blaj4
Winner's pre-match chance 21% · odds 4.33
-
Cupa României Betano · Playoff round
ACS Minerul Lupeni1
AFC Unirea 04 Slobozia0
Winner's pre-match chance 24% · odds 3.75
Cupa României Betano: by season
The most chaotic and most predictable seasons
Giant killers
Win more than expected as the underdog
| Team | Underdog wins | Expected | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| CS CIL Blaj |
2/3 | 0.8 | 122 |
| CS Gloria Bistrița |
1/1 | 0.1 | 117 |
 Concordia Chiajna |
1/1 | 0.3 | 114 |
| AFC Progresul 1944 Spartac |
1/4 | 0.6 | 109 |
| ACS Minerul Lupeni |
1/3 | 0.6 | 108 |
 ACS FC Sporting Liești |
1/4 | 0.8 | 104 |
How is it calculated?
- Probability: From pre-match 1X2 (or two-way) odds, with the bookmaker margin removed proportionally: p = (1/odds) / Σ(1/odds). The same formula as the stats hub's “upsets by odds” block.
- Clear favourite and upset: Only matches with at least a 10-point gap between the home and away win probabilities count; if the favourite's opponent wins, it is an upset. Draws are not upsets. Winner's chance of 25% or less = big upset.
- Ranking: The lower the winner's pre-match chance, the bigger the upset (surprise score = 100 × (1 − chance)).
- Index: 100 × (actual upsets + 5) / (expected upsets + 5); expected = sum of the underdogs' win probabilities. The +5 pulls small samples towards 100. Teams have two directions: giant killing (winning as the underdog) and fragility (losing as the favourite).
- Calibration: Expected values are scaled by the source's overall hit factor (0.95 in this view), so a systematic bias of the source does not shift every league the same way.
- Historical (model): For past matches without odds, the probability comes from our learning Elo model replaying the full history chronologically and taking its state before the match (both teams need at least 15 matches; friendlies excluded). Never mixed with odds.